Congratulations to Barry Bonds on joining the 500 / 500 club. As a guy who loves stats, I have to appreciate the greatness of his accomplishment. However, several sources (*cough* ESPN *cough*) have speculated that this feat will never be accomplished again in our lifetime. I have to disagree.
There is no question that 500 home runs is not the mark it once was. There are currently 19 members of the club, but a look at the all-time home run list will show that several current players are on the verge of joining. The real issue is how many more players will ever get 500 steals. 36 have so far, but only 9 have played in the last decade (Henderson, Raines, Coleman, Nixon, Ozzie Smith, Butler, Lofton, and Bonds). Admittedly, those stats emphasize how hard a feat it is, but there is a new generation of stars capable of joining both clubs.
The key to joining this club is consistency. If a player averages 25 / 25, it would take 20 seasons to reach these marks. Now playing 20 seasons (at least for the good players) has never been a rarity, but maintaining this level of play throughout a career would be quite amazing. Over 17 full seasons, Bonds has averaged 36 / 29. Looking back over the last few years, the number of 35 /35 players is 2 (Soriano and Vlad last year) and 15 25 / 25 seasons. From a quick perusal of the league leaders, 2 young stars have an outside chance at 500 / 500.
Alfonso Soriano is 25 with 80 home runs and 106 stolen bases. In each of his first two full seasons he stole over 40 bases and his home run total jumped from 18 to 39. There is no question that as he gets older he will become more of a home run hitter (he already has 20 this season), so the key is to get as many stolen bases as possible early in his career, especially since he is currently out of position as a lead-off hitter. Soriano has the potential for some monster home run season if he stays healthy, so 400 home runs over the next 10 years would not be unreasonable (though he has yet to hit 40). The bigger concern, especially playing in the American League, is keeping up the base stealing rate.
Vladimir Gurrero at 27 has played 8 seasons and has accumulated 217 home runs and 119 stolen bases. As typical of this era, 500 home runs should not be a problem (barring health problems) having hit at least 34 over the last 5 seasons and averaging nearly 40 over that span. The 500 stolen bases plateu might be out of reach, but over the last two seasons Vlad has shown some ability having swiped 37 and 40. If the can maintain this rate for the next 5 to 8 years (the theoretical prime of his career), then he should get pretty close.
Update: 5:47 When I initially wrote this entry, I had Alex Rodriguez in mind. He is only 27 (but has already played in parts of 10 MLB seasons) and has 316 home runs (one of the fastest in history to hit 300) and 167 stolen bases. The reason I didn't add him initially is that despite having 50 more stolen bases than Vlad and having a season of 46, upon further examination he only stole 9 all of last season. It took Bonds 17 full seasons before he recorded one where he only stole 9 (he already has 7 this season). In fact, in his first 13 seasons he only had one where he failed to steal at least 28 bases and in that season he stole 17. Hitting third in the American league on a team with a lot of home run hitters, I think his days of being among the leaders in stolen bases are already behind him.
Do either of these players have a good chance of joining both or either clubs? No, but is it out of the realm of possiblity? I would think not. I'd place my bet on Bonds being on hand the day the next player joins his party of one.
Posted by shs4 at June 25, 2003 05:06 PMI don't think that any of the guys mentioned will join the 300-300 club let alone the 400-400 club so forget about 500-500, and i don't really like the alfonso soriano's, vladimir guerreros or the alex rodriguez's. These guys aren't african american, they don't quite have they total package like the true great ones, whether it being a white or black american (ted williams, willie mays types) and soriano is 28 years old and not 26, bonds was already in the 200-200 club by that age.
Posted by: Freddy Austin at July 8, 2004 08:52 PMWow, a lot has changed about this entry in a year. One of the reasons kissaboo started was to chronicle our insane opinions.
First, let me say that a year ago I thought the odds of one of them making the 500/500 club was about 5%, now it is way less than 1%. However, considering the fact that before Bonds joined this club NO ONE had ever done it, I was just trying to contradict the prevailing wisdom that it would never happen again.
Now, while some comments on kissaboo have been playing loose with the sports facts recently, Alfonso honestly aged 3 years over the last year. Apparently, like a lot of Latin players, he lied about his age. Baseball Prospectus has a discussion of what this means for his career. Taking away two potential prime years for Soriano definitely negatively affects his chance of joining this club. Ironically, this means that Sorinao is older than Vlad and ARod is only 6 months older than both of them.
The most significant thing that has changed is that Alfonso and Vlad have both been traded to American League teams where they bat in the third spot. Alfonso dropping from the leadoff spot and Vlad leaving the National League mean both will have a lot less opportunities to steal bases, which is the harder milestone to reach in this achievement in the modern game.
Vlad is currently at 254 hr / 130 sb and I will state that baring major injury Vlad has 500 home runs in his pocket. Over his last 5 full seasons he has averaged almost exactly 40 home runs and he is on pace for the same this season. Thus he only needs 6 more seasons of the same production (near the prime of his career) to reach 500, so the only question is how many stolen bases will he get? I predict 10 more years for Vlad at a 15 base average in the American league (no more 40 steal seasons) so he should fall just short of 300 / 300 (or 500 / 300).
Alfonso is right now at 114 / 129. He has a decent chance of averaging 35 home runs a year playing in Texas (if not more) so he needs at least 11 seasons to reach 500. Does Soriano have the body type and work ethic to play that long? Probably not, but it is in the realm of possibility. He'll probably never steal 40 bases in a season again, however, though he'll steal more than Vlad.
Btw, ARod’s trade to the Yankees may have revitalized his chances to join the club. He already has as many stolen bases this year (18) as he ever had in Texas and will probably end up with 35 for the season. At this moment, he is at 366 / 195, so like Vlad, 500 home runs is a lock (heck, 600 is almost a lock), so the question is can Arod average 30 stolen bases over the next 10 years?. If he stays in New York, I believe he can. Also, don't be shocked if he moves into the leadoff spot in the future if Giambi ever returns to old form (and when Bernie becomes too old).
Also, to answer a question that I am sure is on everyone’s mind, Bonds turned 28 halfway through the ’92 season, his 7th. . Before the season he was at 142 / 212, at the end of it he was at 176 / 251. Not exactly 200 / 200, but he did have a lot more steals, which does get harder the older you get.
Looking at this year's leaders, Beltran should be mentioned on this list, especially with his trade to the National League. He is currently at 127 / 165 and is a year younger than Vlad and Alfonso.
In closing, the odds of either of Alfonso or Vlad making the 500 / 500 club is about nil (though I bet one will make the 300 / 300 club). However, ARod's move probably means the odds of someone joining Bonds in this club in the next 15 years has actually improved.
Posted by: shs4 at July 10, 2004 02:10 AMBtw, the only article I can find a year later that even somewhat discusses the possibility of other players entering the club is this one by the Indiana Daily Student.
Posted by: shs4 at July 10, 2004 06:07 PM