September 22, 2004

Suzuki has just 3 games left!

Yes, the asterisk. Yes, it has been removed from the record books, but of all the records in baseball this one most deserves the protection of the asterisk since hits are the most frequently occurring offensive baseball statistic (yes, I'm ignoring at-bats and total bases). When George Sisler had 257 hits in 1920, he did it in only 154 games (and 631 at-bats). Ichiro's Mariners has played in 151 games (he has missed one) and he has amassed 243 hits in 654 at bats (already more than Sisler). Though Ichiro already has 4 games this year of 5 hits, the odds of him getting three more in a row or almost nil, so there is no way he's going to break the record in 154 games - though there is a very good chance he will accomplish the task in 162 (but not 100%).

I will give Ichiro a sporting chance. Besides getting 14 hits in his next 3 games, I'll be kind enough to say he just needs to have more than 257 hits in any consecutive string of 154 team games during 1 season to truly hold the record. If you take away the first 8 games of this season where he got 13 hits, that means he needs 27 hits in his last 11 games to tie the record (must better shot than 14 in 3). I'll even be sporting and remove any record of his first 3 games of the year when he only had 2 hits. Thus if he gets more than 16 hits in his next 6 games, he'll have the record (Yes, higher hit percentage but probably easier to do with streak-ability).

The other consideration I'll give is to just pro-rate Sisler's 257 hits over a 162 games season, which comes out to 270.350..... and coincidentally enough means the same thing - he'll have to have 28 or more hits in his last 11 games to truly have the hits record.

For people concerned with paces, Sisler had 1.669 hits per game in 1920 while Ichiro is currently on a pace of 1.609 hits per game (or over the course of a full season 261 hits, 4 more than Sisler).

Posted by boo at September 22, 2004 12:27 PM | TrackBack
Comments

Ichiro sure has been impressive, but I put the odds of him getting 9 hits tomorrow to set the record at 0.

Posted by: boo at September 25, 2004 12:55 AM

Truly terrific season by Ichiro. Only 7 shy of the record and 5th best all-time (though we'll re-evaluate if he gets 10+ hits in his last 8 ADDITIONAL games).

Posted by: boo at September 25, 2004 11:39 PM

Ichiro is the greatest player...in the world! The world!!!

Posted by: maggette at October 1, 2004 06:45 PM
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